Assessing the capacity of the public work infrastructrure in Ho Chi Minh City to 2025 in the context of migration and climate change

Abstract

Economic and industrial development has led to massive immigration into Ho Chi Minh city (HCMC) in recent years, an average of 200,000 people per year from 2007 to 2013 (GSO, 2015). This has created certain pressures on the city’s infrastructures. Over the past several years, HCMC has experienced both direct and indirect impacts by climate change. Among those are impacts on the infrastructures and an increasing immigration into HCMC. This study aimed to assess the capacity of the three public work service infrastructures (PWSIs) of HCMC including electricity, water supply, and municipal solid waste (MSW) management to 2025. It was based on an average consumption of electric power and water per capita, and the MSW generation rate per capita in the current situation and in HCMC’s plans to evaluate the demands of the PWSIs by 2025, taking into account the increased population due to climate change. The study showed that the capacity of electric power supply and sanitary water supply was tremendously threatened. By 2025, domestic electricity consumption would triple as much as planned, at 55.4 billion KWh.year-1, equivalent to 5,000 KWh.capita-1.year-1. To meet with the target water supply of 180 litter.capita-1.day-1, the total need for domestic water supply would be 2.380 million m3.day-1, an increase of 493,000 m3.day-1 compared with the city’s plan. Meanwhile, the solid waste management system would still guarantee the capacity to handle an amount of 13,300 tons of MSW per day by 2025. In addition, an increase of 390,000 immigrants in 10 years from 2015 to 2025 (Oanh et al., 2015) would demand an amount of 2.04 billion KWh.year-1 of electric power, 88,000 m3.day-1 of sanitary water supply, and would dispose 500 tons of MSW.day-1.