On the empirical relationship between tourism and economic growth

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of economic growth and tourism evolution for 80 countries during the period 1995–2016. The variables representing economic and tourism growth are growth rates of per capita GDP and international tourist arrivals per inhabitant respectively. Using the concept of economic regime, the paper introduces a notion of distance between the dynamical paths of different countries. Then, a Minimal Spanning Tree and a Hierarchical Tree are constructed to detect groups of countries sharing similar performance. The two main clusters we find can be interpreted as two groups of countries with high and low performance in the tourism sector and are coherent with the business cycle. The evolution of such clusters shows three main stylized facts: certain countries move across clusters; the low performance cluster tends to span, while the high performance one tends to be (more) compact; the distance between the two groups increases in time.