Scenario-Planning Method for Cost Estimation Using Morphological Analysis

Abstract

Early cost estimates are emphasized repeatedly in the initial decision-making process to set a direction for the success of constructionprojects.Therefore,alternativesneedtobeexamined,andtheconsequencesforthecostshouldbeanalyzedcarefully. Thisstudyproposesascenario-planningmethodthatusesmorphologicalanalysisfortheestimationofconstructioncost.Acase studywasconductedusingpublicdataon102apartmentbuildingsfrom10housingcomplexprojects.Theresultsshowestimation accuracy of 4.23 to 4.86% and an average stability enhancement of 1.39 to 1.73%. The proposed process can produce adaptable scenariosandevaluatetheimpactofthescenariosinacomplicateddecision-makingprocesswithlimitedinformationprovided. Furthermore, this method can provide a contingency plan to cushion against uncertainties.