Can Repetitive Small Magnitude-Induced Seismic Events Actually Cause Damage?

Abstract

Geoengineering activities such as reservoir impoundment, mining, wastewater injection, geothermal systems, and CO2 capture have been linked directly to induced seismicity. With the industrial boom in natural shale gas production regions previously aseismic areas have seen an exponential growth in the frequency of small magnitude events, with multiple events observed in close proximity within a 24-hour time period. While the overwhelming majority of induced seismic research has focused on the causality, the potential risk posed to critical federal infrastructure has escaped scrutiny. This proposes the question, “Can repetitive small magnitude-induced seismic events actually cause damage?” A review of the potential risk is presented herein, concluding that a simplistic definitive statement of whether single or multiple small magnitude-induced seismic events do or do not cause damage to critical infrastructure cannot be justified, and warrants additional study. However, recent observations and research suggest the likelihood that these geoengineering-induced events can and do cause detrimental degradation of the subsurface (damaging the overlying structure) is not insignificant.