Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision-Making Model for Time-Cost-Risk Trade-Off Optimization in Construction Projects

Abstract

As is often the case in project scheduling, when the project duration is shortened to decrease total cost, the total float is lost resulting in added critical or nearly critical activities. This, in turn, results in decreasing the probability of completing the project on time and increases the risk of schedule delays. To solve this problem, this research developed a fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (FMCDM) model. The objective of this model is to help project managers improve their decisions regarding time-cost-risk trade-offs (TCRTO) in construction projects. In this model, an optimization algorithm based on fuzzy logic and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been used to analyze the time-cost-risk trade-off alternatives and select the best one based on selected criteria. The algorithm was implemented in the MATLAB software and applied to two case studies to verify and validate the presented model. The presented FMCDM model could help produce a more reliable schedule and mitigate the risk of projects running overbudget or behind schedule. Further, this model is a powerful decision-making instrument to help managers reduce uncertainties and improve the accuracy of time-cost-risk trade-offs. The presented FMCDM model employed fuzzy linguistic terms, which provide decision-makers with the opportunity to give their judgments as intervals comparing to fixed value judgments. In conclusion, the presented FMCDM model has high robustness, and it is an attractive alternative to the traditional methods to solve the time-cost-risk trade-off problem in construction.